US: Long yields likely to in six months – Danske Bank

The past month has seen significant further increases in US yields, with 10Y US Treasury yields rising to 3%. Economists at Danske Bank expect yields to peak in six months.

10-year US yields to peak six months from now

“We now expect 10Y Treasury yields to increase to 3.5% in the course of the next 6 to 12 months. We previously expected an increase to 3.1%.”

“Note that we have now pencilled in a peak for yields in 6 months’ time. On a 12-month horizon, we estimate that markets will seriously begin to price short rates at close to peaking and the next shift in rates to be downwards – not least, if the economic cycle turns out weaker in 2023 than we expect.”