Coronavirus: Downward revision of global economic outlook – Rabobank

Economists at Rabobank have looked at their assumptions in more detail and have revised global growth forecasts again due to the development of coronavirus all over the world.

Key quotes

“We now expect global GDP to decline by 2.6% in 2020. In terms of the peak in contraction, we expect the impact of the corona-crisis to overshadow even the impact of the Global Financial Crisis.”

“Countries that are expected to face the largest contraction are the US (-6.4%), Italy (-7.2%) and the UK (-6.8).”

“Large emerging markets such as China and India are expected to grow by a little over 1% in 2020. However, keep in mind that these economies would under normal condition be able to grow by 5% to 6%.”

“If the lockdowns are successful in containing the virus, we expect to see the first (tentative) signs of a recovery in Q3 2020. Hence, we do not include a second wave of infections in late 2020, nor do we assume an extension of the lockdowns beyond Q2.”