China: CPI inflation peaking – ING

Robert Carnell, chief economist at ING, notes that inflation in China in November rose further to 4.5%YoY, but there are clear signs that it is peaking.

Key Quotes

“Newswires running headlines like "China November inflation highest since 2012" entirely miss the point. Inflation in China has been driven higher by rising pork and consequently other meat prices. This is fallout from the African Swine Fever (AFS) epidemic that has killed half of the hog population in China.”

“In November, pork prices rose 3.8%MoM. But this was way down from the 20.1% increase in October, the 19.7%MoM increase in September, and the 23.1% increase in August. In fact, it was the lowest increase since June (3.6%MoM).”