US: Lack of hard economic data this week - Nomura

According to analysts at Nomura this week will be relatively quiet in terms of hard economic data for the US economy.

Key Quotes

“We expect modest increases in existing and new home sales data for July. Elsewhere, we will receive the FOMC meeting minutes from August that could offer additional information on the Committee’s thinking around the neutral rate, trade policy and the economic outlook more broadly.”

“Incoming economic data last week remains consistent with above potential growth in Q3. Our Q3 GDP tracking estimate remains at 3.1% q-o-q saar after incorporating July retail sales, industrial production and housing starts data. Our past quarter tracking estimate for Q2 is currently at 4.0%.”

“July retail sales and industrial production largely met our expectations and highlight steady momentum for consumer spending and industrial activity to start off Q3. Core (“control”) retail sales increased solidly by 0.5% m-o-m while the industrial production report showed ex-auto manufacturing output up 0.2% during July.”

“Housing starts disappointed somewhat in July, rebounding less than expected after a sharp decline in June. Part of the disappointment may be related to wildfire activity in California as much of the weakness in the report emanated from the West region.”

“Manufacturer sentiment data was somewhat mixed with an improvement in the Empire State survey but sharp deterioration in the Philly Fed survey. However, a supplemental report for the Empire State survey indicates that trade tensions remain a major point of concern for manufacturers in New York State.”

“Consumer sentiment remained elevated but declined somewhat in the preliminary August survey from the University of Michigan, largely driven by a sharp decline in the current situation of self-identified Democrats. Overall, with a low unemployment rate and steady income growth, we expect consumer sentiment to remain elevated.”