AUD/JPY - A bout of indecision, eyes Aussie trade data

Wednesday’s Doji candle indicates the indecision in the AUD/JPY market following Tuesday’s big sell-off from the psychological level of 87.00. The currency pair is trading 0.15% lower at 85.97 levels in Asia. 

Focus on Aussie trade data

Australia will report the trade data for the month of May at 01:30 GMT. Trade surplus had narrowed sharply in April due to fall in exports (supply disruptions to coal exports caused by Cyclone Debbie). Economists expect the surplus to rebound modestly (expected $1.1 billion). 

A bigger trade surplus may lift the AUD/JPY cross and vice versa. Escalation of North Korea tensions may strengthen the bid tone around the Japanese Yen and ensure the AUD/JPY cross remains below the previous day’s Doji candle high of 86.55. 

AUD/JPY Technical Levels

A break below 85.77 (10-DMA + 0.618 Fib ext. of June 6 low - June 20 high - June 22 low) would open doors for 85.08 (June 20 high) and 84.41 (100-DMA). On the higher side, a clear break above 86.55 (previous day’s high) would open up upside towards 87.03 (100% Fib ext.) and 87.49 (Mar 15 high). 

The daily chart also shows golden cross - bullish crossover between 50-DMA and 200-DMA -which is a lagging indicator and almost always works the other way round. The RSI is turning lower from the overbought region.