Expectations for Chinese data - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expectations for Chinese data.

Key quotes:

"Industrial production growth (data on 20 January) to tick down to 6.1% y-o-y in December from 6.2% in November, fixed asset investment growth to edge down to 8.2% y-o-y (ytd) from 8.3% in November, and retail sales growth to rise 0.2pp to 11.0% y-o-y in December, partly on a low base last year.

We forecast CPI inflation (10 January) to ease to 2.0% y-o-y in December from 2.3% in November, due to lower food price inflation.

PPI inflation may have jumped further to 4.8% y-o-y from 3.3% as prices continue to rise and a low base continues to have an effect. We expect export growth in USD terms (8-13 January) to slow to -8.5% y-o-y in December from -1.5% in November, partly due to a high base last year.

In CNY terms, we expect export growth to moderate to -0.4% from 4.1%. Import growth may have also slowed to -1.0% y-o-y from 4.7% in USD terms and to 7.9% from 10.8% in CNY terms. As a result, we expect the trade surplus to narrow slightly to USD42.0bn from USD44.2bn in November. For money and credit data (10-15 January), we forecast modest drops in new RMB loans and aggregate financing in December to RMB700bn and RMB1.56trn, respectively. We expect a dip in M2 growth to 11.0% y-o- from 11.4% in November."