17 Oct 2013
Flash: AUD/USD to top at 0.95/96, revised up LT - ANZ
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - ANZ FX Strategists have revised up the longer-term forecasts for the AUD/USD after Economists at the Bank revised the RBA rate forecast to now expect no more cuts.
Key Quotes
"Our AUD/USD forecasts envisage the currency declining to 90c by the end of this year, and to 85c by the end of 2015."
"While the very near-term forecasts seem a little pessimistic against the improvement in domestic conditions and given the likely delay in tapering until Q1 2014, we retain our view that 95/96 is likely to be the top of the range, and the currency is likely to decline from there over the medium-term."
"However, over the longer-term the revisions to the interest rate differential warrant a higher forecast AUD. Our modelling suggests that the appropriate levels are somewhere in the low 90s."
"We now see the AUD basing at around US87 cents in late 2014 and beyond. For those wanting to position for a stronger AUD over the medium term, AUD/NZD is our favoured way to play that."
Key Quotes
"Our AUD/USD forecasts envisage the currency declining to 90c by the end of this year, and to 85c by the end of 2015."
"While the very near-term forecasts seem a little pessimistic against the improvement in domestic conditions and given the likely delay in tapering until Q1 2014, we retain our view that 95/96 is likely to be the top of the range, and the currency is likely to decline from there over the medium-term."
"However, over the longer-term the revisions to the interest rate differential warrant a higher forecast AUD. Our modelling suggests that the appropriate levels are somewhere in the low 90s."
"We now see the AUD basing at around US87 cents in late 2014 and beyond. For those wanting to position for a stronger AUD over the medium term, AUD/NZD is our favoured way to play that."