21 Jul 2015
Short NZD/USD, target 0.62, stop 0.68 - BNZ
FXStreet (Bali) - The BNZ Currency Research Team has entered a short NZD/USD trade at current spot (0.6605) targeting 0.62 with a stop at 0.68.
Key Quotes
"To be sure, NZD/USD has come a long way in a short time, and the market is heavily short. But a significant short squeeze would require a fundamental catalyst."
"In our minds, there is little on the NZ calendar in the near-term that would support a material rally beyond that seen in this run up from 0.6505 to 0.66, the catalyst for which appears to have been the comments from NZ Prime Minister John Key that the NZD has fallen faster than expected."
"It seems unlikely that the RBNZ will express anything other than contentment as the recent fall, in its post-meeting statement on Thursday."
"As a result of a series of poor dairy auctions and a soggy CPI result, we now expect the RBNZ to lower its policy rate from 3.25% today, to 2.50% in October. There is also a small chance that the RBNZ delivers a 50bps easing at an upcoming meeting, though our expectation for further material weakness in the NZD is not contingent on this occurring."
Key Quotes
"To be sure, NZD/USD has come a long way in a short time, and the market is heavily short. But a significant short squeeze would require a fundamental catalyst."
"In our minds, there is little on the NZ calendar in the near-term that would support a material rally beyond that seen in this run up from 0.6505 to 0.66, the catalyst for which appears to have been the comments from NZ Prime Minister John Key that the NZD has fallen faster than expected."
"It seems unlikely that the RBNZ will express anything other than contentment as the recent fall, in its post-meeting statement on Thursday."
"As a result of a series of poor dairy auctions and a soggy CPI result, we now expect the RBNZ to lower its policy rate from 3.25% today, to 2.50% in October. There is also a small chance that the RBNZ delivers a 50bps easing at an upcoming meeting, though our expectation for further material weakness in the NZD is not contingent on this occurring."