2 Sep 2013
Flash: AUD/USD maintains 1m/3m forecasts at 0.88 – UBS
FXstreet.com (Lisbon) - For the AUD/USD, retail sales on Tuesday, quarterly GDP on Wednesday, and the monthly trade balance on Thursday have the potential to inject some volatility too, suggests Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS.
Key quotes
However, longer-term investors should focus their attention on Q2 portfolio flows due on Tuesday - foreign demand for Australian portfolio assets has been dwindling, and we doubt appetite recovered recently given the AUD/USD fell over 12% in Q2 - the fastest rate of decline since 2008.
Moreover, Japanese investors net sold about $3.2 bn worth of their AUD portfolio assets during Q2 (according to Japan's Ministry of Finance). An unusually large amount of AUD-denominated debt matured in Q2, potentially tempting some investors to reduce their exposure.
“So the weekend China PMI aside, the Australian dollar is still a sell on rallies in our view, and our 1m and 3m AUD/USD forecasts remain at 0.88.”
Key quotes
However, longer-term investors should focus their attention on Q2 portfolio flows due on Tuesday - foreign demand for Australian portfolio assets has been dwindling, and we doubt appetite recovered recently given the AUD/USD fell over 12% in Q2 - the fastest rate of decline since 2008.
Moreover, Japanese investors net sold about $3.2 bn worth of their AUD portfolio assets during Q2 (according to Japan's Ministry of Finance). An unusually large amount of AUD-denominated debt matured in Q2, potentially tempting some investors to reduce their exposure.
“So the weekend China PMI aside, the Australian dollar is still a sell on rallies in our view, and our 1m and 3m AUD/USD forecasts remain at 0.88.”