23 Jul 2013
Flash: Near term risks for the AUD/USD - NAB
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - There are more two-way risks to the AUD at present, notes Emma Lawson, FX Strategist at NAB, one being the Australian CPI and the other the IMM speculative data, while in the international front, China and the Fed dominate.
Key quotes
"If the Australian CPI comes in much weaker than expected, we could see a sharp AUD drop. However, with markets already pricing in 62% for an August RBA easing, the AUD/USD decline may find it difficult to push through the 0.90 support level which has held so far. The CPI risks are slightly asymmetric for the AUD, given the pricing for an RBA easing. A higher than expected outcome may see further AUD shorts to be unwound."
"The IMM speculative trades data has returned to extreme short positioning. This suggests there is more near-term upside risk
to AUD/USD than downside. We see resistance at 0.9350."
"International risks include further negative news on China and changing expectations for Fed QE tapering."
Key quotes
"If the Australian CPI comes in much weaker than expected, we could see a sharp AUD drop. However, with markets already pricing in 62% for an August RBA easing, the AUD/USD decline may find it difficult to push through the 0.90 support level which has held so far. The CPI risks are slightly asymmetric for the AUD, given the pricing for an RBA easing. A higher than expected outcome may see further AUD shorts to be unwound."
"The IMM speculative trades data has returned to extreme short positioning. This suggests there is more near-term upside risk
to AUD/USD than downside. We see resistance at 0.9350."
"International risks include further negative news on China and changing expectations for Fed QE tapering."