China: Trade outlook remains soft – UOB

Economist at UOB Group Ho Woei Chen, CFA, assesses the latest trade balance results in the Chinese economy.

Key Takeaways

“China’s exports rose for the second consecutive month in Apr, boosted by a low base due to the Shanghai lockdown last year. The contraction in imports suggest weaker-than-expected domestic demand recovery.”

“Despite the export growth in the last two months, China’s trade outlook remains weak as signaled by the contraction in the Apr manufacturing PMIs for both the official and the private sector Caixin surveys. For now, we maintain our forecasts for China’s exports to contract by -3.0% and imports to grow by +2.0% respectively in 2023.”

“Imports of commodities including oil and metals generally held up with no evident signs of slowing industrial activities for now.”